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河南省洪澇災(zāi)情對(duì)小麥和玉米價(jià)格有什么影響？

2021-08-02 10:24:51 來(lái)源：農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng)整理發(fā)布 閱讀量：32649 評(píng)論

導(dǎo)讀：從今年6月份開始，隨著供給偏緊的局面緩和，玉米價(jià)格高位回落。河南等地暴雨災(zāi)害發(fā)生后，市場(chǎng)擔(dān)心玉米生產(chǎn)供給受影響，華北部分地區(qū)價(jià)格短期內(nèi)出現(xiàn)了小幅反彈，收購(gòu)價(jià)每斤上漲2-3分錢，但并沒(méi)有帶動(dòng)全國(guó)玉米價(jià)格上漲。

　　【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場(chǎng)行情】 7月30日，農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部舉行新聞發(fā)布會(huì)，介紹當(dāng)前農(nóng)業(yè)抗災(zāi)救災(zāi)情況，并答記者問(wèn)。
 
　　由于河南省是糧食小麥、玉米主產(chǎn)區(qū)，對(duì)于此次災(zāi)害對(duì)糧食價(jià)格的影響，農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部市場(chǎng)與信息化司司長(zhǎng)唐珂表示，災(zāi)情發(fā)生后，從監(jiān)測(cè)情況看，我國(guó)糧食價(jià)格沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)明顯波動(dòng)，市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行仍保持基本穩(wěn)定。其中，小麥?zhǔn)袌?chǎng)購(gòu)銷總體正常，價(jià)格繼續(xù)呈穩(wěn)中偏弱趨勢(shì)。和往年一樣，6月底前后河南的小麥已經(jīng)基本收獲完畢。由于今年小麥單產(chǎn)高、品質(zhì)好，市場(chǎng)購(gòu)銷活躍，開秤初期收購(gòu)價(jià)每斤普遍比去年高1毛錢左右，之后隨著上市量的增加，農(nóng)戶售糧進(jìn)度加快，市場(chǎng)收購(gòu)價(jià)穩(wěn)中略跌。這次鄭州、新鄉(xiāng)等地發(fā)生強(qiáng)降雨災(zāi)害之后，部分農(nóng)戶和貿(mào)易商手中的糧食保管難度加大，售糧意愿加強(qiáng)，導(dǎo)致小麥價(jià)格繼續(xù)走弱，但跌幅不明顯。據(jù)調(diào)度，7月26日主產(chǎn)區(qū)普通小麥?zhǔn)召?gòu)均價(jià)約每斤1.25元，較受災(zāi)前跌1分錢左右。玉米價(jià)格局部地區(qū)小幅上漲，全國(guó)市場(chǎng)變化不大。由于去年以來(lái)，玉米價(jià)格漲幅較大，受到市場(chǎng)各方高度關(guān)注，從今年6月份開始，隨著供給偏緊的局面緩和，玉米價(jià)格高位回落。河南等地暴雨災(zāi)害發(fā)生后，市場(chǎng)擔(dān)心玉米生產(chǎn)供給受影響，華北部分地區(qū)價(jià)格短期內(nèi)出現(xiàn)了小幅反彈，收購(gòu)價(jià)每斤上漲2-3分錢，但并沒(méi)有帶動(dòng)全國(guó)玉米價(jià)格上漲。7月26日全國(guó)玉米收購(gòu)均價(jià)約每斤1.3元，仍然保持基本穩(wěn)定。
 
　　從國(guó)際市場(chǎng)看，近期也沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)大幅波動(dòng)，總體仍然是高位震蕩回落的走勢(shì)。7月26日，芝加哥期貨交易所的小麥和玉米的主力合約收盤價(jià)都比一周前有所下跌。
 
　　總體來(lái)說(shuō)，糧食市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行雖然受市場(chǎng)預(yù)期、資本炒作等多種因素的影響，但主要還是看供需基本面。這次河南暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害對(duì)糧食市場(chǎng)的影響是局部的、短期的，對(duì)我國(guó)糧食生產(chǎn)供給全局影響較為有限，在這一點(diǎn)上，市場(chǎng)各方的判斷和預(yù)期也是基本一致的。今年我國(guó)夏糧已經(jīng)豐收到手，秋糧長(zhǎng)勢(shì)總體較好，再加上糧食庫(kù)存總量充足，糧食保供穩(wěn)價(jià)基礎(chǔ)牢固，后期糧價(jià)有望繼續(xù)以穩(wěn)為主。值得注意的是，夏季高溫多雨，糧食不好保管，當(dāng)前又處于面粉需求淡季，低品質(zhì)小麥價(jià)格可能會(huì)持續(xù)走弱，所以我們提醒受災(zāi)地區(qū)的部分手中仍然有余糧的農(nóng)戶和貿(mào)易商要做好科學(xué)儲(chǔ)糧，及時(shí)有序售糧，防止糧食受潮霉變和價(jià)格下跌帶來(lái)?yè)p失。
 
　　本文由農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng)(tmpdc.cn)整理發(fā)布，資料來(lái)源：農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部。

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