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3月份AMI指數(shù)62.6% 一季度以較高景氣度收官

2022-04-11 09:25:24 來源:中國農(nóng)業(yè)機械流通協(xié)會 閱讀量:17540 評論

導(dǎo)讀:中國農(nóng)業(yè)機械流通協(xié)會發(fā)布的2022年3月份中國農(nóng)機市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為62.6%,環(huán)比下降0.1個百分點,同比下降9.4個百分點。

  【農(nóng)機網(wǎng) 市場行情】中國農(nóng)業(yè)機械流通協(xié)會發(fā)布的2022年3月份中國農(nóng)機市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為62.6%,環(huán)比下降0.1個百分點,同比下降9.4個百分點。從環(huán)比看,6個一級指數(shù)中庫存指數(shù)、人氣指數(shù)和經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢,銷售能力指數(shù)、效益指數(shù)、農(nóng)機補貼指數(shù)則呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢。其中經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)降幅最大,為9.1個百分點。從同比看,6個一級指數(shù)全部呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢,其中效益指數(shù)降幅最大,為17.3個百分點。3月份,6個一級指數(shù)全部位于景氣區(qū)間。
 
  特約分析師張華光認(rèn)為:正如我們上月所料,3月份AMI依然保持較高的景氣度,一季度以較高的景氣度收官。六個一級指數(shù)環(huán)比、同比雖升降有別,但均停留在景氣區(qū)間;所監(jiān)測的5個二級指數(shù)、11個一級指數(shù)與之相同,也均處于景氣區(qū)間,彰顯出3月份農(nóng)機市場旺季特征。
 
  3月份出人意料的變化有四點:第一,環(huán)比、同比雙雙下滑,其中環(huán)比小幅收跌,同比較大幅度滑坡。第二,6個一級指數(shù)的同比全線下滑,其中的3個指數(shù)—人氣指數(shù)、經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)、庫存指數(shù)同比、環(huán)比同聲下跌。第三,二級指數(shù)的種植機指數(shù)以及與之對應(yīng)的三級指數(shù)的插秧機指數(shù)、免耕播種機指數(shù)同比均出現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)的較大幅度滑坡。第四,小麥?zhǔn)斋@機景氣指數(shù)的同比大幅度下滑,環(huán)比小幅下滑,應(yīng)引起我們的注意,麥?zhǔn)杖找媾R近,景氣度卻出現(xiàn)反行。此現(xiàn)象是上月形成的景氣度“高地”所進行的調(diào)整,還是市場走勢出現(xiàn)變化,還有待進一步觀察。
 
  以上變化折射出3月份農(nóng)機市場如下特征。
 
  其一,今年農(nóng)機市場旺季前移,由往年的3月份前移至2月份,并形成上半年景氣度峰值,這是造成3月份AMI環(huán)比、同比下挫的主要原因;與之呼應(yīng)的一、二、三級指數(shù)也出現(xiàn)同樣的變化。
 
  其二,疫情對3月份AMI產(chǎn)生了不容忽視的巨大影響,成為改變景氣度走向至關(guān)重要的因素。特別是對種植機械指數(shù)的影響,這種影響簡直是致命的。因為播種機市場的80%、插秧機市場的90%以上的銷量集中在上半年的3-5月份(今年提前至2-4月份)。隨著3月市場的結(jié)束,加之4月疫情仍多點爆發(fā),事實上今年絕大部分經(jīng)營業(yè)務(wù)也基本完結(jié),甚至連翻盤的機會都沒有。正如一個主流插秧機廠家苦不堪言的感受:我們今年的經(jīng)營業(yè)務(wù)將出現(xiàn)“腰斬”。播種機市場與之相同,所不同的一些頭部企業(yè)表現(xiàn)還可以,雖然沒有大幅度增長,但穩(wěn)定住了下滑的腳步。至于集中于下半年的水稻、玉米以及其它收獲機市場表現(xiàn)如何,還要看疫情的“臉色”。如果接下來幾個月,疫情得到較好的控制,各地管控有所松動,市場還會回暖。反之,多數(shù)細(xì)分市場也會重蹈種植機械市場的覆轍。
 
  4月AMI走勢判斷。已經(jīng)開始的4月份,我們預(yù)計繼3月之后,同比、環(huán)比還會繼續(xù)下滑。但基于旺季原因以及多年來的走勢規(guī)律,守住景氣度底線的概率很大。一、二、三級指數(shù)中的某些指數(shù)的景氣度或繼續(xù)下沉,不排除個別指數(shù)跌出景氣區(qū)間的可能性。
 
  上面的判斷主要基于AMI面臨的較為強烈的利空因素和嚴(yán)峻的市場環(huán)境。
 
  首先看疫情的影響。疫情多點爆發(fā),對4月份的農(nóng)機市場正產(chǎn)生令人難以置信卻又實實在在的負(fù)面影響。因疫情導(dǎo)致的物流遲滯,甚至“斷流”,正演變成為壓垮一些細(xì)分市場的最后一根稻草。其中三個方面表現(xiàn)得十分明顯。一是因物流遲滯,對生產(chǎn)企業(yè)產(chǎn)生兩大至關(guān)重要的負(fù)面影響:第一,零部件供應(yīng)遲滯,不少企業(yè)無法正常組織生產(chǎn);第二,產(chǎn)品無法順暢送達(dá)終端,導(dǎo)致經(jīng)銷商無法正常組織貨源。二是一些用戶不能正常“流動”,無法正常出門購機。3月人氣指數(shù)同比、環(huán)比雙雙下滑正是對疫情影響的靈敏反映。三是打擊市場信心,3月份市場信心指數(shù)雖然礙于旺季“佛面”還保持較高的景氣度,但同比、環(huán)比均出現(xiàn)不同程度的下滑,反映了經(jīng)理人對接下來的市場顯露出憂慮之態(tài)。這從市場旺季卻壓低庫存的反其道而行之的做法得到佐證,3月庫存指數(shù)下降只是信心不足的表征而已。此番疫情,不僅對正在運行的四月市場產(chǎn)生較大影響,對全年的市場都會產(chǎn)生較大沖擊。我們綜合各種因素,估計疫情因素或?qū)⒗腿贽r(nóng)機市場4-5個百分點。
 
  其次,從AMI的內(nèi)生因素分析,突出表現(xiàn)為以下兩點。第一,從近年農(nóng)機市場景氣指數(shù)的變化規(guī)律分析,自2014年至2021年,除2020年因當(dāng)年疫情原因未統(tǒng)計景氣度數(shù)據(jù),其它所有年份,4月份的景氣度均低于3月份。第二,3月份,經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)環(huán)比、同比下跌,釋放出市場出現(xiàn)拐點信號?;诖耍覀冾A(yù)計,今年如不出現(xiàn)意外,景氣度大概率會下滑。
 
  最后,一些看似有點意外,但任何糟糕的意外情況對今年的農(nóng)機市場增長來說都可能是致命的。除前面所述的疫情對AMI的影響外,其它復(fù)雜的宏觀環(huán)境如通脹風(fēng)險急劇上升、俄烏戰(zhàn)爭對全球糧食價格產(chǎn)生的蝴蝶效應(yīng)、西方為首的國家對俄羅斯的經(jīng)濟朝著惡化的方向發(fā)展,全球經(jīng)濟面臨著二次衰退,這還不是詳盡的清單。這些看似遠(yuǎn)離我們的事件,或在不同時間,通過不同渠道對農(nóng)機市場產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。
 
  自去年至今年,在各種復(fù)雜因素影響下,市場變得云譎波詭,競爭日趨激烈,不少細(xì)分市場進入關(guān)鍵轉(zhuǎn)折期。無論生產(chǎn)企業(yè)還是經(jīng)銷商,都必須做好迎接挑戰(zhàn)的準(zhǔn)備。面對嚴(yán)峻的市場形勢,唯有擦亮品牌,升級產(chǎn)品,控制風(fēng)險,才能立于行業(yè)潮頭,在變革浪潮中脫穎而出。
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