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【農(nóng)機(jī)市場】4月份AMI指數(shù)為54.7%，小幅下滑但停留在景氣區(qū)間

2024-05-09 10:43:23 來源：中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì) 閱讀量：15146 評論

導(dǎo)讀：中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布的2024年4月份中國農(nóng)機(jī)市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為54.7%，環(huán)比下降3.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，同比提升6.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

　　【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場行情】中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布的2024年4月份中國農(nóng)機(jī)市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為54.7%，環(huán)比下降3.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，同比提升6.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從環(huán)比看，6個(gè)一級指數(shù)中，除農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼指數(shù)有所提升外，其余指數(shù)均呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢，其中經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)下滑幅度最大，比上月同期下滑10.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；從同比看，6個(gè)一級指數(shù)中除經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)外全部呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢，其中，效益指數(shù)提升幅度最大，為12.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。本月6個(gè)一級指數(shù)除經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)落入不景氣區(qū)間，其余指數(shù)仍停留在景氣區(qū)間。
 
　　特約分析師張華光認(rèn)為：正如上月的預(yù)測，4月份AMI環(huán)比小幅下滑，以54.7%的景氣度繼續(xù)停留在景氣區(qū)間。同比提升6.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，主要受去年同期指數(shù)“低位”的影響。總指數(shù)和多數(shù)一級指數(shù)環(huán)比下滑，反映了市場下行的趨勢。
 
　　4月份，AMI掉頭下行，雖繼續(xù)停留在景氣區(qū)間，但拐點(diǎn)已現(xiàn)，市場凸顯旺轉(zhuǎn)淡的特征，與多數(shù)年份AMI運(yùn)行規(guī)律一致。預(yù)計(jì)接下來的月份，將反復(fù)演繹同比增長的戲碼。4月份AMI一級指數(shù)中唯一落入不景氣區(qū)間的指數(shù)就是經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)，也是唯一一個(gè)同比環(huán)比均下滑的一級指數(shù)，意味著接下來的5月份，多數(shù)經(jīng)理人不看好未來的市場，對市場形勢持悲觀態(tài)度。從監(jiān)測的5個(gè)二級指數(shù)中，除收割機(jī)指數(shù)環(huán)比同比均有所提升外，拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)、耕整地機(jī)械指數(shù)、種植機(jī)械指數(shù)和田間管理機(jī)械指數(shù)均呈現(xiàn)環(huán)比下滑，同比上升的趨勢，其中拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)環(huán)比下滑幅度最大，為12.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，而種植機(jī)械指數(shù)同比增幅最大，為10.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。多數(shù)細(xì)分市場好于去年。在4月份所監(jiān)測的10個(gè)三級指數(shù)中，多數(shù)指數(shù)呈現(xiàn)出環(huán)比下滑，同比增長的趨勢，但也有“例外”，如深松機(jī)指數(shù)和自走式玉米收獲機(jī)指數(shù)，環(huán)比同比均下滑，位于三年同期歷史低位。自走履帶式谷物聯(lián)合收割機(jī)(全喂入)和自走輪式谷物聯(lián)合收割機(jī)環(huán)比同比均出現(xiàn)不同程度的增長，同比增長幅度均超過兩位數(shù)。說明兩大收獲機(jī)市場有所回暖，而深松機(jī)市場及玉米收獲機(jī)市場則進(jìn)一步下探。
 
　　預(yù)計(jì)5月份，AMI或?qū)⒒芈渲敛痪皻鈪^(qū)間。環(huán)比下滑、同比增長的概率較大。多數(shù)一、二、三級指數(shù)環(huán)比、同比表現(xiàn)仍然會(huì)有較大“溫差”。5月最大看點(diǎn)是自走式輪式谷物聯(lián)合收割機(jī)市場，無論是增長還是下滑，全年市場都將塵埃落定。其次是插秧機(jī)市場，全年結(jié)局將見分曉。從制造端看，競爭加劇。進(jìn)入5月份后，鑒于今年市場的嚴(yán)峻性和不確定性，生產(chǎn)企業(yè)將打響促銷戰(zhàn)。價(jià)格作為插向終端的一把利刃，或成為包括大品牌在內(nèi)的殺手锏，市場競爭將更加激烈。從銷售端看，去化將成為主題。從市場終端看，決策選擇變得必須。麥?zhǔn)赵诩?，插秧將畢。去年使用的輪式谷物收獲機(jī)和水稻插秧機(jī)是更新還是延續(xù)，已沒有時(shí)間再猶豫，他們的選擇將決定這兩個(gè)市場今年的最終走向。而內(nèi)生動(dòng)力對5月份AMI的走勢產(chǎn)生較大影響。
 
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