2025年1月份AMI指數(shù)為41.5%，開年市場(chǎng)環(huán)境并沒有大的改善

2025-02-17 14:31:11 來(lái)源：中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)流通協(xié)會(huì) 閱讀量：9251 評(píng)論

　　【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場(chǎng)行情】 中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布的2025年1月份中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為41.5%，環(huán)比提升2.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，同比下降0.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從環(huán)比看，庫(kù)存指數(shù)、人氣信心指數(shù)和經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)有所上漲，其它則全部下降。其中，經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)漲幅最大，環(huán)比提升22.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；從同比看，6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)除經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)外全線下行，其中效益指數(shù)降幅最大，為6.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)中除經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)挺進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間外，其余均位于不景氣區(qū)間。
 
　　中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)流通協(xié)會(huì)信息咨詢部主任張文博認(rèn)為：作為2025年開年的1月，AMI出現(xiàn)環(huán)比提升、同比下滑的趨勢(shì)，1月份正值農(nóng)閑時(shí)期，市場(chǎng)正值淡季，生產(chǎn)企業(yè)與經(jīng)銷商的年底促銷政策也已基本結(jié)束，AMI走勢(shì)波瀾不驚。從數(shù)據(jù)層面看，環(huán)比提升2.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，同比下降0.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，基本上波動(dòng)不大，41.5的景氣度亦位于近三年同期歷史低點(diǎn)，開年的1月份，AMI表現(xiàn)并不如意，說(shuō)明今年的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境并沒有大的改善。
 
　　1月份，AMI的表現(xiàn)出收益下滑，銷售能力下降，人氣上漲，信心提升以及多數(shù)細(xì)分領(lǐng)域下滑等方面的特征。10個(gè)三級(jí)指數(shù)中，大型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)一枝獨(dú)秀，1月份，三級(jí)指數(shù)中大型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)是唯一一支環(huán)比、同比均上漲的指數(shù)，環(huán)比提升5.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，同比提升1.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。在這樣的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境下，大拖市場(chǎng)依然能保持增長(zhǎng)，說(shuō)明市場(chǎng)需求逐步在向大型高端智能化方向發(fā)力。其余市場(chǎng)除免耕播種機(jī)市場(chǎng)環(huán)比略有上漲外，全部環(huán)比、同比雙雙下跌，其中深松機(jī)指數(shù)、插秧機(jī)指數(shù)、遙控飛行噴霧機(jī)指數(shù)、玉米收獲機(jī)指數(shù)下滑幅度超過兩位數(shù)。
 
　　2月份，季節(jié)因素依然是主導(dǎo)AMI的關(guān)鍵因素。2月份雖然仍然是淡季，但也是本年度旺季淡季的分水嶺，春耕、春播將自南方至北方順次展開，農(nóng)機(jī)交易復(fù)蘇，且趨于活躍，為市場(chǎng)上行提供必要的支撐。市場(chǎng)信心增強(qiáng)。作為先行指數(shù)的經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)，本月表現(xiàn)出強(qiáng)烈信號(hào)，以60.5的景氣度沖進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間，是本月唯一進(jìn)入景氣區(qū)間的一級(jí)指數(shù)，環(huán)比、同比大幅提升，說(shuō)明多數(shù)經(jīng)理人看好2月份的市場(chǎng)。且1月份41.5的AMI景氣度位于近三年同期歷史低點(diǎn)，為下月市場(chǎng)環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)預(yù)設(shè)了較低門檻。
 
　　雖然2月市場(chǎng)面臨諸多利好因素，但利空因素表現(xiàn)的也較為強(qiáng)烈。一是去年年底，許多企業(yè)促銷，導(dǎo)致經(jīng)銷商庫(kù)存高企，對(duì)2月份乃至上半年市場(chǎng)銷售將產(chǎn)生重大影響；二是去年糧價(jià)低迷，農(nóng)機(jī)投資者收益下降，對(duì)購(gòu)買力和潛在投資者均產(chǎn)生較大的負(fù)面效應(yīng)，上行壓力增大；三是農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼的影響，如插秧機(jī)等一些產(chǎn)品的農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼單臺(tái)補(bǔ)貼額度下調(diào)已成定局，去年一些用戶提前購(gòu)買，掏空了今年的市場(chǎng)。
 
　　從2014年至2025年11年間AMI的表現(xiàn)看，2月份景氣度均高于1月，且進(jìn)入景氣區(qū)間的概率較大?；诖耍A(yù)計(jì)2月份AMI環(huán)比、同比有望實(shí)現(xiàn)雙增，但能否進(jìn)入景氣區(qū)間仍存在較大的不確定性，一、二、三級(jí)指數(shù)冷熱不均的特點(diǎn)將表現(xiàn)得較為突出。

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