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3月份農(nóng)機(jī)市場景氣指數(shù)為72.0%,環(huán)比提升18.7個百分點
2021-04-12
10:11:55
來源:中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會 閱讀量:20950
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導(dǎo)讀:中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會發(fā)布了3月中國農(nóng)機(jī)市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)商務(wù)報告。
【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場行情】中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會發(fā)布了3月中國農(nóng)機(jī)市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)商務(wù)報告。
3月份AMI指數(shù)為72.0%,比上月提升18.7個百分點,進(jìn)入景氣區(qū)間。受疫情影響,2020年1-3月數(shù)據(jù)缺失,無法進(jìn)行同期比較。
中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會發(fā)布的2021年3月份中國農(nóng)機(jī)市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為72.0%,環(huán)比提升18.7個百分點。從環(huán)比看,6個一級指數(shù)除經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)外全部呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,其中效益指數(shù)增幅,為35.5個百分點。目前,6個一級指數(shù)全部進(jìn)入景氣區(qū)間。
特約分析師張華光認(rèn)為:3月份AMI繼續(xù)沿上升通道大幅度增長,不僅維系了上月的強(qiáng)勁增勢,而且景氣度再攀新高,并創(chuàng)下AMI發(fā)布以來的記錄,呈現(xiàn)超常規(guī)發(fā)展勢頭。從所監(jiān)控的一、二、三級指數(shù)看,悉數(shù)挺進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間,即使處于衰退期鮮有進(jìn)入景氣區(qū)間的小型
拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)和從未在3月份發(fā)力的
收獲機(jī)指數(shù)也不例外。其中,一級指數(shù)中的效益指數(shù)、二級指數(shù)中的
種植機(jī)械指數(shù)、三級指數(shù)中的插秧機(jī)指數(shù)的景氣度更是超過80%以上,分別高達(dá)了80.9%、84.8%和82.6%,這種超乎尋常的增長看似逆常規(guī)發(fā)展,卻又在預(yù)料之中。
首先,今年一季度三個月的市場很特殊,其特殊性主要由去年疫情引發(fā)。眾所周知,去年同期正值疫情期間,農(nóng)機(jī)市場幾乎陷于停滯狀態(tài),形成多年未遇的市場大“洼地”,今年同比大幅度攀升正是基于這個“洼地”。其次,從常規(guī)因素分析,主要有以下幾個原因:,3月份是農(nóng)機(jī)市場上半年最旺的月份,景氣度高于2月份屬于正常的市場反應(yīng);第二,去年暖冬,今年春耕提前半個多月來臨,市場銷售旺季伴隨著春耕的腳步如期而至;第三,今年農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼總額增加20億元,對提振市場信心具有不可忽視的重要作用;第四,細(xì)分市場的強(qiáng)勢拉動。去年播種機(jī)、插秧機(jī)市場出現(xiàn)斷貨,被壓制的市場需求能量今年得以釋放,譬如種植機(jī)械和插秧機(jī)市場的大幅度攀升,景氣度貢獻(xiàn)率明顯提高。最后,從外部環(huán)境分析,去年糧食豐產(chǎn),且糧價提升。農(nóng)民收入增加,種糧積極性提高,導(dǎo)致今年播種面積擴(kuò)容和購買力增強(qiáng),為市場增長奠定扎實基礎(chǔ)。
2021年4月份,AMI或?qū)⒊尸F(xiàn)如下特點:,總指數(shù)AMI將停留在景氣區(qū)間,但環(huán)比會出現(xiàn)大幅度回落;第二,多數(shù)一、二、三級指數(shù)環(huán)比都會出現(xiàn)不同程度的下降,一些指數(shù)或?qū)⑦M(jìn)入不景氣區(qū)間。
為何會停留在景氣區(qū)間?,4月份仍然處于上半年市場的旺季,自2014年至2020年,除2017年、2019年之外,其它月份均處于景氣區(qū)間,今年處于景氣區(qū)間概率較大;第二,上月的人氣指數(shù)較高,經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)雖有下調(diào),但依然停留在景氣區(qū)間,意味著推動市場增長的動能依舊。景氣度下降,環(huán)比和同比增幅下調(diào)概率很大。其一,指數(shù)發(fā)布以來,4月份指數(shù)較之3月份均出現(xiàn)不同程度的下挫,已成規(guī)律。如果不出現(xiàn)意外,此規(guī)律很難打破;其二,3月份景氣指數(shù)的飆升,形成景氣度“高地”;其三,去年4月份農(nóng)機(jī)市場開始發(fā)力,景氣度創(chuàng)下57.4%歷史新高,為同比下滑埋下伏筆;其四,4月份是AMI多年來由盛轉(zhuǎn)衰的拐點,今年也不會例外;其五,4月份,春耕、春播的農(nóng)機(jī)具準(zhǔn)備工作基本告罄,多地進(jìn)入農(nóng)忙季節(jié),市場購買減少。
一、一級指數(shù)運行情況
(一)銷售能力指數(shù)
2021年3月,銷售能力指數(shù)為76.7%,比上月提升25.5個百分點,位于景氣區(qū)間。
(二)效益指數(shù)
2021年3月,效益指數(shù)為80.9%,比上月提升35.5個百分點,位于景氣區(qū)間。
(三)農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼指數(shù)
2021年3月,農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼指數(shù)為63.8%,比上月提升18.7個百分點,位于景氣區(qū)間。
(四)庫存指數(shù)
2021年3月,庫存指數(shù)為59.3%,比上月提升8.1個百分點,位于景氣區(qū)間。
(五)人氣指數(shù)
2021年3月,人氣指數(shù)為70.1%,比上月提升19.9個百分點,位于景氣區(qū)間。
(六)經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)
2021年3月,經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)為66.1%,比上月下降5.9個百分點,位于景氣區(qū)間。經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)的景氣度雖然仍保持高位并停留在景氣區(qū)間,但環(huán)比卻出現(xiàn)5.9%的回落,預(yù)示景氣指數(shù)拐點出現(xiàn),下月的AMI環(huán)比或?qū)⒊霈F(xiàn)較大幅度下降。
二、二級指數(shù)運行情況
(一)拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)
2021年3月,拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)為74.5%,比上月提升23.6個百分點,位于景氣區(qū)間。
(二)耕整地機(jī)械指數(shù)
2021年3月,耕整地機(jī)械指數(shù)為75.7%,比上月提升18.2個百分點,位于景氣區(qū)間。
(三)種植機(jī)械指數(shù)
2021年3月,種植機(jī)械指數(shù)為84.8%,比上月提升32.9個百分點,位于景氣區(qū)間。
(四)田間管理機(jī)械指數(shù)
2021年3月,田間管理機(jī)械指數(shù)為79.8%,比上月提升17.6個百分點,位于景氣區(qū)間。
(五)收獲機(jī)械指數(shù)
2021年3月,收獲機(jī)械指數(shù)為75.6%,比上月提升27.8個百分點,位于景氣區(qū)間。
三、三級指數(shù)運行情況
(一)大型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)
2021年3月,大型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)為74.6%,比上月提升20.9個百分點,位于景氣區(qū)間。
(二)中型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)
2021年3月,中型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)為78.8%,比上月提升19.5個百分點,位于景氣區(qū)間。
(三)小型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)
2021年3月,小型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)為67.3%,比上月提升32.4個百分點,位于景氣區(qū)間。
(四)旋耕機(jī)指數(shù)
2021年3月,旋耕機(jī)指數(shù)為75.8%,比上月提升23.4個百分點,位于景氣區(qū)間。
(五)插秧機(jī)指數(shù)
2021年3月,插秧機(jī)指數(shù)為82.6%,比上月提升26.6個百分點,位于景氣區(qū)間。
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